London Open Brief — Thursday, April 9, 2026

DXY has cracked below 99, and the safe-haven unwind is repricing everything this morning.

Easing geopolitical tensions sent risk assets surging overnight while the dollar dumped on fading safe-haven demand. DXY sits at 99.07 this morning — its lowest level in over a year, falling 0.92% in the past 24 hours as geopolitical premium drains out. The desk is split: half the floor is chasing the risk-on move, the other half is watching what happens when the calm expires. Today's hook type: macro catalyst.

XAUUSD (Gold)

• Yesterday: Gold opened at $4,730, sold off to an intraday low of $4,698 before settling around $4,722. Easing geopolitical tensions drained safe-haven flows, but the DXY collapse below 99 put a floor under the metal. Two forces pulling in opposite directions — geopolitical de-escalation bearish, dollar destruction bullish.
• Today: Watch $4,700 on the downside — that round number is a stop-cluster magnet. Got stopped out at $4,700, then Gold reversed straight to $4,740? That's the exact play the hourly close market is built for. Spend 20% of your stop loss on a "Gold closes below $4,700" contract instead → calculate your hedge here.
• The desk says: Neutral-to-bullish. The dollar weakness looks structural, not just a one-day reaction. But if geopolitical calm holds, $4,650 isn't out of the question.
• Market: Gold 12H Close → predictamarkets.com/markets

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NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures)

• Yesterday: NQ pushed into the 25,000 zone on risk-on sentiment. Today's range has been 24,980–25,049.
• Today: The 25,000 psychological level is first resistance. A hold above 24,800 keeps the bulls in charge; a rejection here and we're looking at a gap fill lower.
• The desk says: The move was fast — classic squeeze energy. Don't chase. Wait for the retest.
• Market: NQ 12H Close — 13% YES → Trade it

ES (S&P 500 Futures)

• Yesterday: ES posted a strong session on risk-on sentiment. Breadth was constructive — this wasn't five mega-caps dragging the index.
• Today: Holding above recent highs confirms the move has legs. When mainstream media leads with big green numbers, retail FOMO is incoming — but one geopolitical headline reverses the entire move.
• The desk says: Bullish with the trend, but fragile.
• Market: ES 12H Close — 13% YES → Trade it

WTI Crude Oil (CL)

• Yesterday: Oil prices pulled back sharply as easing geopolitical tensions reduced the immediate supply-disruption premium. But the underlying supply risk near the Strait of Hormuz hasn't disappeared — a pause is not a guarantee.
• Today: $100 remains the line in the sand. If it breaks, inflation expectations reset globally. The pullback in Oil noted by FXStreet is weighing on DXY's safe-haven bid simultaneously — a rare double move.
• The desk says: Oil pulling back while structural supply risk persists tells you how fragile the pricing is. This is the most dangerous ticker on the board today.
• Market: predictamarkets.com/markets

BTC (Bitcoin)

• Yesterday: Bitcoin climbed on the broader risk-on wave, tracking the Nasdaq correlation rather than leading it.
• Today: Watch for whether BTC can sustain momentum above recent resistance. Volume matters — healthy, not euphoric, is the constructive setup.
• The desk says: BTC is a beta play on risk sentiment right now, not leading. Watch NQ for direction.
• Market: predictamarkets.com/markets

ETH (Ethereum)

• Yesterday: ETH pushed higher intraday before settling back. The broader risk-on environment is supportive, but the ETH/BTC ratio continues to compress.
• Today: The short-term structure stays constructive as long as buyers defend recent support. The risk-on backdrop favours higher-beta crypto, which should help ETH.
• The desk says: ETH needs its own catalyst. Right now it's riding BTC's coattails. Not a bad place to be, but not leadership either.
• Market: predictamarkets.com/markets

⚡ Tariff Watch

DXY below 99 isn't just a chart level — it's a purchasing power story in Nairobi, Lagos, and Accra. The dollar's structural weakening, accelerated by trade policy uncertainty and a BlackRock note flagging supply chain shocks intensifying EM dispersion, means import costs are shifting in real time. For African traders watching Fiber and Cable, tariff escalation headlines aren't abstract macro — they move the pairs you trade and the prices you pay at the pump. The EUR/USD hourly close market lets you trade the policy impact directly → predictamarkets.com/markets.

(For deeper context on how trade policy affects African markets, read our latest world events analysis.)

EUR/USD — Fiber

• Yesterday: Fiber surged as the dollar capitulated. Easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven USD demand while the ECB's relatively stable stance provided a floor for the euro.
• Today: The ECB is data-watching ahead of upcoming decisions; any hawkish commentary keeps Fiber supported.
• The desk says: The trend is your friend until the Fed pushes back. No pushback yet.
• Market: EUR/USD 12H Close — 33% YES → predictamarkets.com/markets